Calgary Flames at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Yegor SharangovichPoints1
Panthers- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals2
- Gustav ForslingAssists2
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P34:30Kevin Stenlund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (8)1–5
- P214:55Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (24), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (19)1–4
- P213:12Sam Bennett Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (23), Matthew Tkachuk (51)1–3
- P26:19Aleksander Barkov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (31), Vladimir Tarasenko (25)1–2
- P25:51Yegor Sharangovich Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (33), Andrei Kuzmenko (16)1–1
- P20:23Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:23Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 56% → 72% +17FLA 56% → 72%+17 pts
- P25:51Yegor Sharangovich Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (33), Andrei Kuzmenko (16)CGY 1 – 1 FLA · CGY 27% → 45% +18CGY 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P26:19Aleksander Barkov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (31), Vladimir Tarasenko (25)CGY 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 55% → 73% +18FLA 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P213:12Sam Bennett Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (23), Matthew Tkachuk (51)CGY 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 75% → 89% +14FLA 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P214:55Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (24), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (19)CGY 1 – 4 FLA · FLA 89% → 96% +7FLA 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 64%
- Fair odds
- FLA -131
- CGY +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +97 Elo | FLA 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.91st of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 55.2%2nd of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 16th of 3114–15 | Road vs home | 19–116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–0 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.