New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists3
- Artemi PanarinPoints5
Penguins- Lars EllerGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Lars EllerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:42Chris Kreider Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (19)7–4
- P37:23Valtteri Puustinen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (20), Lars Eller (11)6–4
- P34:41K'Andre Miller Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (23), Artemi Panarin (55)6–3
- P217:32Mika Zibanejad Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (31), Artemi Panarin (54)5–3
- P216:27Artemi Panarin Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (30), Adam Fox (43)4–3
- P210:10Lars Eller Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (24), Bryan Rust (19)3–3
- P115:32Artemi Panarin Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (40), K'Andre Miller (18)3–2
- P112:27Bryan Rust Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (34), Drew O'Connor (15)2–2
- P13:33Adam Fox Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (53), Vincent Trocheck (39)2–1
- P13:07Kaapo Kakko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (10), Alexander Wennberg (18)1–1
- P12:36John Ludvig Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jeff Carter (3), Noel Acciari (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:27Bryan Rust Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (34), Drew O'Connor (15)NYR 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 37% → 53% +16PIT 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P115:32Artemi Panarin Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (40), K'Andre Miller (18)NYR 3 – 2 PIT · NYR 47% → 64% +17NYR 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P210:10Lars Eller Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (24), Bryan Rust (19)NYR 3 – 3 PIT · PIT 32% → 52% +20PIT 32% → 52%+20 pts
- P216:27Artemi Panarin Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (30), Adam Fox (43)NYR 4 – 3 PIT · NYR 48% → 70% +22NYR 48% → 70%+22 pts
- P217:32Mika Zibanejad Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (31), Artemi Panarin (54)NYR 5 – 3 PIT · NYR 71% → 87% +17NYR 71% → 87%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 45%
- Fair odds
- PIT -113
- NYR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −3 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +38 Elo | NYR 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 52.0%9th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 11th of 3119–15 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.