San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Klim KostinGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- Marc-Edouard VlasicPoints2
Penguins- John LudvigGoals1
- Drew O'ConnorAssists2
- John LudvigPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:04Bryan Rust Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (31), Sidney Crosby (33)3–6
- P34:38Rickard Rakell Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (5), John Ludvig (2)3–5
- P32:38John Ludvig Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (4), Reilly Smith (19)3–4
- P218:42Klim Kostin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (33), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (4)3–3
- P211:34Evgeni Malkin Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (14), Lars Eller (10)2–3
- P24:11Jeff Carter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Bemstrom (8)2–2
- P119:01Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Klim Kostin (3), Mikael Granlund (32)2–1
- P114:31Fabian Zetterlund Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Calen Addison (15), Henry Thrun (4)1–1
- P110:28Noel Acciari Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (37), Drew O'Connor (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:01Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Klim Kostin (3), Mikael Granlund (32)SJ 2 – 1 PIT · SJ 44% → 62% +17SJ 44% → 62%+17 pts
- P24:11Jeff Carter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Bemstrom (8)SJ 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 37% → 55% +19PIT 37% → 55%+19 pts
- P211:34Evgeni Malkin Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (14), Lars Eller (10)SJ 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 55% → 74% +19PIT 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P218:42Klim Kostin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (33), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (4)SJ 3 – 3 PIT · SJ 24% → 46% +22SJ 24% → 46%+22 pts
- P32:38John Ludvig Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (4), Reilly Smith (19)SJ 3 – 4 PIT · PIT 54% → 78% +24PIT 54% → 78%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 64%
- Fair odds
- PIT -131
- SJ +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −4 | SJ: Magnus Chrona: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +97 Elo | PIT 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.7 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.5% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 30th of 316–25 | Road vs home | 15–1620th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.