San Jose Sharks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Filip ZadinaGoals2
- Luke KuninAssists2
- Filip ZadinaPoints2
Flyers- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists2
- Morgan FrostPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:09Owen Tippett Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (29), Cam York (16)2–3
- P213:34Filip Zadina Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Luke Kunin (6), Klim Kostin (2)2–2
- P29:20Morgan Frost Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (28), Cam York (15)1–2
- P119:19Filip Zadina Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Luke Kunin (5), Alexander Barabanov (8)1–1
- P13:29Joel Farabee Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:29Joel Farabee Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (23)SJ 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 57% → 71% +14PHI 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P119:19Filip Zadina Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Luke Kunin (5), Alexander Barabanov (8)SJ 1 – 1 PHI · SJ 28% → 44% +16SJ 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P29:20Morgan Frost Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (28), Cam York (15)SJ 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 55% → 74% +19PHI 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P213:34Filip Zadina Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Luke Kunin (6), Klim Kostin (2)SJ 2 – 2 PHI · SJ 25% → 45% +20SJ 25% → 45%+20 pts
- P35:09Owen Tippett Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (29), Cam York (16)SJ 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 54% → 79% +26PHI 54% → 79%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 65%
- Fair odds
- PHI -134
- SJ +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −2 | SJ: Magnus Chrona: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +111 Elo | PHI 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.5% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 31 |
| 29th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 30th of 316–24 | Road vs home | 15–1620th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.