Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks
Jets- Tyler ToffoliGoals2
- Josh MorrisseyAssists3
- Josh MorrisseyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:54Mason Appleton Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (22), Josh Morrissey (48)0–6
- P311:05Tyler Toffoli Goal (28) Deflected, assists: Mark Scheifele (39), Josh Morrissey (47)0–5
- P38:07Tyler Toffoli Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (25)0–4
- P34:59Dylan DeMelo Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (28), Brenden Dillon (11)0–3
- P27:47Nate Schmidt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (27), Neal Pionk (19)0–2
- P116:20Kyle Connor Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Dylan DeMelo (20), Josh Morrissey (46)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:20Kyle Connor Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Dylan DeMelo (20), Josh Morrissey (46)ANA 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 60% → 76% +15WPG 60% → 76%+15 pts
- P27:47Nate Schmidt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (27), Neal Pionk (19)ANA 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 77% → 89% +12WPG 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P34:59Dylan DeMelo Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (28), Brenden Dillon (11)ANA 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 95% → >99% +4WPG 95% → >99%+4 pts
- P38:07Tyler Toffoli Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (25)ANA 0 – 4 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P311:05Tyler Toffoli Goal (28) Deflected, assists: Mark Scheifele (39), Josh Morrissey (47)ANA 0 – 5 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 73%
- Fair odds
- WPG -165
- ANA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.7 – 3.4 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +173 Elo | WPG 73.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.1% | Shot share | 50.9%14th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 92.4%1st of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 24th of 3113–18 | Road vs home | 20–115th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–2 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.