Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks
Wild- Zach BogosianGoals1
- Jonas BrodinAssists1
- Zach BogosianPoints1
Scoring summary
- P22:17Kirill Kaprizov Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (21), Matt Boldy (29)0–2
- P114:44Zach Bogosian Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (17), Jonas Brodin (16)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:44Zach Bogosian Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (17), Jonas Brodin (16)ANA 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 56% → 72% +16MIN 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P22:17Kirill Kaprizov Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (21), Matt Boldy (29)ANA 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 73% → 86% +13MIN 73% → 86%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 65%
- Fair odds
- MIN -133
- ANA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −4 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +105 Elo | MIN 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.0 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.3% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 21st of 3113–17 | Road vs home | 16–1416th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.