Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Brock FaberGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists1
- Brock FaberPoints1
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:32Valeri Nichushkin Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (53), Nathan MacKinnon (71)1–2
- P210:44Brock Faber Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (38), Joel Eriksson Ek (29)1–1
- P10:42Artturi Lehkonen Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (70)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:42Artturi Lehkonen Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (70)MIN 0 – 1 COL · COL 56% → 70% +14COL 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P210:44Brock Faber Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (38), Joel Eriksson Ek (29)MIN 1 – 1 COL · MIN 26% → 45% +19MIN 26% → 45%+19 pts
- OT2:32Valeri Nichushkin Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (53), Nathan MacKinnon (71)MIN 1 – 2 COL · COL 51% → 97% +45COL 51% → 97%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 62%
- Fair odds
- COL -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +87 Elo | COL 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%16th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 20th of 3113–16 | Road vs home | 23–61st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.