Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Mark JankowskiGoals1
- Mark JankowskiAssists1
- Mark JankowskiPoints2
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:50Matt Boldy Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (43), Kirill Kaprizov (39)3–4
- P317:58Ryan O'Reilly Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (48), Filip Forsberg (35)3–3
- P312:28Ryan Hartman Goal (16) Backhand, assists: none2–3
- P218:42Kirill Kaprizov Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (31), Matt Boldy (28)2–2
- P23:36Luke Evangelista Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (24), Mark Jankowski (3)2–1
- P19:00Mark Jankowski Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (10)1–1
- P13:16Jonas Brodin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (27), Joel Eriksson Ek (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:36Luke Evangelista Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (24), Mark Jankowski (3)NSH 2 – 1 MIN · NSH 44% → 62% +18NSH 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P218:42Kirill Kaprizov Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (31), Matt Boldy (28)NSH 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 31% → 55% +24MIN 31% → 55%+24 pts
- P312:28Ryan Hartman Goal (16) Backhand, assists: noneNSH 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 53% → 87% +34MIN 53% → 87%+34 pts
- P317:58Ryan O'Reilly Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (48), Filip Forsberg (35)NSH 3 – 3 MIN · NSH 2% → 48% +46NSH 2% → 48%+46 pts
- OT3:50Matt Boldy Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (43), Kirill Kaprizov (39)NSH 3 – 4 MIN · MIN 51% → >99% +48MIN 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -139
- NSH +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.8 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −5 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +28 Elo | MIN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%27th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3119–11 | Road vs home | 15–1417th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.