Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Brett LeasonGoals2
- Urho VaakanainenAssists1
- Brett LeasonPoints2
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals2
- Connor BedardAssists4
- Connor BedardPoints5
Scoring summary
- P310:06Tyler Johnson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (31), Philipp Kurashev (27)2–7
- P33:10Philipp Kurashev Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (30), Nick Foligno (18)2–6
- P32:43MacKenzie Entwistle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andreas Athanasiou (6)2–5
- P219:31Connor Bedard Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (26), Nick Foligno (17)2–4
- P211:49Seth Jones Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (16), Connor Bedard (29)2–3
- P23:25Philipp Kurashev Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (28), Nick Foligno (15)2–2
- P21:51Brett Leason Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (11)2–1
- P111:27Ryan Donato Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (7), Andreas Athanasiou (5)1–1
- P110:39Brett Leason Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:39Brett Leason Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (27)ANA 1 – 0 CHI · ANA 47% → 62% +16ANA 47% → 62%+16 pts
- P111:27Ryan Donato Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (7), Andreas Athanasiou (5)ANA 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 37% → 53% +16CHI 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P21:51Brett Leason Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (11)ANA 2 – 1 CHI · ANA 47% → 65% +18ANA 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P23:25Philipp Kurashev Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (28), Nick Foligno (15)ANA 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 35% → 53% +18CHI 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P211:49Seth Jones Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (16), Connor Bedard (29)ANA 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 53% → 72% +20CHI 53% → 72%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 49%
- Fair odds
- CHI -116
- ANA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +9 Elo | ANA 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.031st of 31 |
| 30th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.0 | Margin | −1.530th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 45.0%30th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 89.8%25th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 31 |
| 20th of 3113–16 | Road vs home | 11–2129th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.