Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler JohnsonGoals1
- Zach SanfordAssists1
- Tyler JohnsonPoints1
Capitals- Michael SgarbossaGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists2
- John CarlsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:49Tyler Johnson Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Jarred Tinordi (7), Zachary Sanford (6)1–4
- P217:24Sonny Milano Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (23)0–4
- P113:36Tom Wilson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (29), Alex Ovechkin (30)0–3
- P18:45Michael Sgarbossa Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (10), John Carlson (33)0–2
- P17:01Hendrix Lapierre Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (32), Aliaksei Protas (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:01Hendrix Lapierre Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (32), Aliaksei Protas (22)CHI 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 57% → 72% +14WSH 57% → 72%+14 pts
- P18:45Michael Sgarbossa Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (10), John Carlson (33)CHI 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 72% → 83% +12WSH 72% → 83%+12 pts
- P113:36Tom Wilson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (29), Alex Ovechkin (30)CHI 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 84% → 92% +8WSH 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P217:24Sonny Milano Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (23)CHI 0 – 4 WSH · WSH 97% → >99% +2WSH 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P39:49Tyler Johnson Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Jarred Tinordi (7), Zachary Sanford (6)CHI 1 – 4 WSH · CHI <1% → <1% +0CHI <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 67%
- Fair odds
- WSH -136
- CHI +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | 0 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +126 Elo | WSH 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.0 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.5 | Margin | −0.325th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.9% | Shot share | 47.1%26th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 30th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 31st of 314–25 | Road vs home | 16–1415th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.