Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals
Jets- Alex IafalloGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Alex IafalloPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:00Kyle Connor Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Mark Scheifele (38), Nikolaj Ehlers (26)0–3
- P28:16Alex Iafallo Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (45), Dylan DeMelo (19)0–2
- P110:05Neal Pionk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (19), Adam Lowry (21)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:05Neal Pionk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (19), Adam Lowry (21)WSH 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 55% → 70% +15WPG 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P28:16Alex Iafallo Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (45), Dylan DeMelo (19)WSH 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 73% → 87% +14WPG 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P310:00Kyle Connor Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Mark Scheifele (38), Nikolaj Ehlers (26)WSH 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 97% → >99% +3WPG 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Fair odds
- WPG -127
- WSH +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −3 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +69 Elo | WPG 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 31 |
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 50.9%14th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 20th of 3113–16 | Road vs home | 19–104th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.