Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Gustav NyquistGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Gustav NyquistPoints2
Jets- Alex IafalloGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists1
- Alex IafalloPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:49Mason Appleton Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Miller (5), Dylan Samberg (15)4–2
- P313:12Alex Iafallo Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Brenden Dillon (10), Vladislav Namestnikov (23)4–1
- P31:51Jason Zucker Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Colton Sissons (18)4–0
- P31:29Filip Forsberg Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (40), Ryan McDonagh (20)3–0
- P114:32Kiefer Sherwood Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (50), Cole Smith (14)2–0
- P16:38Gustav Nyquist Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (49), Juuse Saros (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:38Gustav Nyquist Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (49), Juuse Saros (2)NSH 1 – 0 WPG · NSH 45% → 60% +15NSH 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P114:32Kiefer Sherwood Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (50), Cole Smith (14)NSH 2 – 0 WPG · NSH 62% → 76% +15NSH 62% → 76%+15 pts
- P31:29Filip Forsberg Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (40), Ryan McDonagh (20)NSH 3 – 0 WPG · NSH 89% → 97% +8NSH 89% → 97%+8 pts
- P31:51Jason Zucker Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Colton Sissons (18)NSH 4 – 0 WPG · NSH 97% → >99% +2NSH 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P313:12Alex Iafallo Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Brenden Dillon (10), Vladislav Namestnikov (23)NSH 4 – 1 WPG · WPG <1% → <1% +0WPG <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Fair odds
- WPG -125
- NSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +51 Elo | WPG 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 51.0%13th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 92.4%1st of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3119–12 | Road vs home | 20–104th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.