Winnipeg Jets at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Tyler ToffoliGoals2
- Sean MonahanAssists2
- Tyler ToffoliPoints3
Blue Jackets- Brendan GaunceGoals1
- Mathieu OlivierAssists1
- Brendan GauncePoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:34Tyler Toffoli Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: none6–1
- P30:39Brendan Gaunce Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jake Christiansen (2), Mathieu Olivier (5)5–1
- P218:24Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (5), Neal Pionk (20)5–0
- P212:00Logan Stanley Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: none4–0
- P29:45Tyler Toffoli Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (29), Sean Monahan (27)3–0
- P21:10Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (19), Sean Monahan (26)2–0
- P11:26Kyle Connor Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (40), Dylan DeMelo (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:26Kyle Connor Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (40), Dylan DeMelo (21)WPG 1 – 0 CBJ · WPG 51% → 66% +14WPG 51% → 66%+14 pts
- P21:10Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (19), Sean Monahan (26)WPG 2 – 0 CBJ · WPG 69% → 83% +14WPG 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P29:45Tyler Toffoli Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (29), Sean Monahan (27)WPG 3 – 0 CBJ · WPG 85% → 94% +9WPG 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P212:00Logan Stanley Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: noneWPG 4 – 0 CBJ · WPG 95% → 98% +4WPG 95% → 98%+4 pts
- P218:24Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (5), Neal Pionk (20)WPG 5 – 0 CBJ · WPG >99% → >99% +1WPG >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Fair odds
- WPG -106
- CBJ +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.1 – 3.0 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +6 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +70 Elo | WPG 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.627th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 47.4%23rd of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.5% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 7th of 3117–13 | Road vs home | 13–2127th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.