San Jose Sharks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Henry ThrunGoals1
- Kevin LabancAssists1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints1
Blue Jackets- Alexander NylanderGoals2
- Johnny GaudreauAssists2
- Alexander NylanderPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:55Alex Nylander Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (39)2–4
- P311:42Henry Thrun Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (6)2–3
- P215:03Johnny Gaudreau Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Nylander (3), Boone Jenner (11)1–3
- P211:48Fabian Zetterlund Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Mario Ferraro (14), Mikael Granlund (34)1–2
- P20:49Alex Nylander Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (24), Zach Werenski (36)0–2
- P117:41Boone Jenner Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (38), Damon Severson (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:41Boone Jenner Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (38), Damon Severson (14)SJ 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 55% → 72% +16CBJ 55% → 72%+16 pts
- P20:49Alex Nylander Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (24), Zach Werenski (36)SJ 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 72% → 85% +13CBJ 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P211:48Fabian Zetterlund Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Mario Ferraro (14), Mikael Granlund (34)SJ 1 – 2 CBJ · SJ 12% → 26% +14SJ 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P215:03Johnny Gaudreau Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Nylander (3), Boone Jenner (11)SJ 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 75% → 89% +14CBJ 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P311:42Henry Thrun Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (6)SJ 2 – 3 CBJ · SJ 2% → 15% +13SJ 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 62%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -129
- SJ +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | SJ: Magnus Chrona: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +85 Elo | CBJ 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.7% | Shot share | 47.7%23rd of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 30th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 30th of 316–26 | Road vs home | 12–2127th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.