St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Kasperi KapanenGoals1
- Kasperi KapanenAssists2
- Kasperi KapanenPoints3
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Kevin ShattenkirkAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:27Alexey Toropchenko Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Colton Parayko (13), Nick Leddy (19)5–1
- P31:48David Pastrnak Goal (41) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (14), Pavel Zacha (27)4–1
- P215:25Brandon Saad Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (13), Kasperi Kapanen (14)4–0
- P24:31Kevin Hayes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (13), Matthew Kessel (3)3–0
- P117:59Robert Thomas Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (25), Justin Faulk (19)2–0
- P110:13Kasperi Kapanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (30), Brandon Saad (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:13Kasperi Kapanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (30), Brandon Saad (12)STL 1 – 0 BOS · STL 44% → 60% +16STL 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P117:59Robert Thomas Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (25), Justin Faulk (19)STL 2 – 0 BOS · STL 62% → 77% +15STL 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P24:31Kevin Hayes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (13), Matthew Kessel (3)STL 3 – 0 BOS · STL 79% → 90% +11STL 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P215:25Brandon Saad Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (13), Kasperi Kapanen (14)STL 4 – 0 BOS · STL 95% → 99% +4STL 95% → 99%+4 pts
- P31:48David Pastrnak Goal (41) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (14), Pavel Zacha (27)STL 4 – 1 BOS · BOS <1% → 3% +2BOS <1% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -131
- STL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +4 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +94 Elo | BOS 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 91.8%3rd of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 31 |
| 25th of 3113–19 | Road vs home | 20–1310th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.