Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Brady TkachukPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals3
- Kevin ShattenkirkAssists3
- David PastrnakPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:06Justin Brazeau Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (20), Morgan Geekie (20)2–6
- P35:08Jesper Boqvist Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: John Beecher (3), Kevin Shattenkirk (17)2–5
- P34:43David Pastrnak Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (16), Danton Heinen (15)2–4
- P219:56Brady Tkachuk Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (23), Drake Batherson (28)2–3
- P218:51Justin Brazeau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (15), Morgan Geekie (19)1–3
- P213:08Shane Pinto Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (38), Thomas Chabot (18)1–2
- P111:23David Pastrnak Goal (43) Backhand, assists: none0–2
- P18:27David Pastrnak Goal (42) Tip-In, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (7), Pavel Zacha (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:27David Pastrnak Goal (42) Tip-In, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (7), Pavel Zacha (30)OTT 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 56% → 71% +15BOS 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P213:08Shane Pinto Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (38), Thomas Chabot (18)OTT 1 – 2 BOS · OTT 11% → 26% +14OTT 11% → 26%+14 pts
- P218:51Justin Brazeau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (15), Morgan Geekie (19)OTT 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 76% → 91% +15BOS 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P219:56Brady Tkachuk Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (23), Drake Batherson (28)OTT 2 – 3 BOS · OTT 9% → 23% +15OTT 9% → 23%+15 pts
- P34:43David Pastrnak Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (16), Danton Heinen (15)OTT 2 – 4 BOS · BOS 79% → 94% +15BOS 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -131
- OTT +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +93 Elo | BOS 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 91.6%4th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 28th of 3110–20 | Road vs home | 21–1411th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.