Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Dmitry OrlovGoals2
- Sebastian AhoAssists3
- Dmitry OrlovPoints4
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:07Brendan Lemieux Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (26), Jaccob Slavin (23)7–2
- P38:52Jake Guentzel Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (47), Jalen Chatfield (14)6–2
- P37:14Dmitry Orlov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (28), Evgeny Kuznetsov (13)5–2
- P34:41Jalen Chatfield Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (46), Dmitry Orlov (19)4–2
- P219:38Seth Jarvis Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (45), Jake Guentzel (34)3–2
- P24:51Tim Stützle Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (17), Claude Giroux (37)2–2
- P22:03Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (27), Dmitry Orlov (18)2–1
- P113:50Thomas Chabot Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (26), Parker Kelly (8)1–1
- P17:19Dmitry Orlov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Lemieux (2), Martin Necas (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:50Thomas Chabot Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (26), Parker Kelly (8)CAR 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 36% → 53% +16OTT 36% → 53%+16 pts
- P22:03Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (27), Dmitry Orlov (18)CAR 2 – 1 OTT · CAR 48% → 65% +18CAR 48% → 65%+18 pts
- P24:51Tim Stützle Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (17), Claude Giroux (37)CAR 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 34% → 52% +19OTT 34% → 52%+19 pts
- P219:38Seth Jarvis Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (45), Jake Guentzel (34)CAR 3 – 2 OTT · CAR 48% → 72% +24CAR 48% → 72%+24 pts
- P34:41Jalen Chatfield Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (46), Dmitry Orlov (19)CAR 4 – 2 OTT · CAR 75% → 92% +17CAR 75% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 45%
- Fair odds
- OTT -113
- CAR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | OTT and CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +10 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +32 Elo | CAR 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.224th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.1% | Shot share | 52.1%8th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 88.9%31st of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 5th of 3118–13 | Road vs home | 16–1518th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 2–0 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.