Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals2
- Brent BurnsAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints3
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jake Guentzel Goal Backhand1–0
- P319:53Sebastian Aho Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (25), Evgeny Kuznetsov (12)4–4
- P318:28Sebastian Aho Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (33), Dmitry Orlov (17)3–4
- P32:55David Kampf Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (42)2–4
- P219:57Seth Jarvis Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (32), Sebastian Aho (44)2–3
- P213:27Jordan Martinook Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (24), Jesper Fast (12)1–3
- P212:03Nicholas Robertson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (27), Timothy Liljegren (17)0–3
- P26:27William Nylander Goal (36) Backhand, assists: Morgan Rielly (41)0–2
- P24:47John Tavares Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:47John Tavares Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (18)CAR 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 53% → 71% +18TOR 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P26:27William Nylander Goal (36) Backhand, assists: Morgan Rielly (41)CAR 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 71% → 85% +14TOR 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P219:57Seth Jarvis Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (32), Sebastian Aho (44)CAR 2 – 3 TOR · CAR 9% → 24% +15CAR 9% → 24%+15 pts
- P32:55David Kampf Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (42)CAR 2 – 4 TOR · TOR 77% → 92% +15TOR 77% → 92%+15 pts
- P319:53Sebastian Aho Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (25), Evgeny Kuznetsov (12)CAR 4 – 4 TOR · CAR 0% → 50% +50CAR 0% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Fair odds
- TOR -118
- CAR +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +2 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +7 Elo | TOR 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.2% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 6th of 3117–13 | Road vs home | 17–1414th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.