Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Hurricanes- Evgeny KuznetsovGoals1
- Jaccob SlavinAssists2
- Jaccob SlavinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:42Andrei Svechnikov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (22)0–4
- P28:27Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (13)0–3
- P22:46Martin Necas Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (16), Jake Guentzel (31)0–2
- P119:11Seth Jarvis Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (18), Jaccob Slavin (21)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:11Seth Jarvis Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (18), Jaccob Slavin (21)FLA 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 53% → 70% +17CAR 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P22:46Martin Necas Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (16), Jake Guentzel (31)FLA 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 71% → 84% +14CAR 71% → 84%+14 pts
- P28:27Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (13)FLA 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 86% → 94% +8CAR 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P315:42Andrei Svechnikov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (22)FLA 0 – 4 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Fair odds
- CAR -118
- FLA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +5 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +5 Elo | CAR 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.9 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.0% | Shot share | 56.1%1st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 1st of 3123–10 | Road vs home | 20–139th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–1 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.