Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Aleksander BarkovGoals2
- Carter VerhaegheAssists2
- Aleksander BarkovPoints3
Stars- Joe PavelskiGoals1
- Joe PavelskiAssists1
- Joe PavelskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:38Aleksander Barkov Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (36), Brandon Montour (21)4–3
- P314:00Sam Bennett Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (53), Gustav Forsling (25)3–3
- P311:09Aleksander Barkov Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (35), Brandon Montour (20)2–3
- P212:52Sam Reinhart Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (48), Matthew Tkachuk (52)1–3
- P28:11Wyatt Johnston Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Mason Marchment (30)0–3
- P27:48Jason Robertson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (33), Jamie Benn (32)0–2
- P13:53Joe Pavelski Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (44), Wyatt Johnston (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:53Joe Pavelski Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (44), Wyatt Johnston (27)FLA 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 54% → 68% +14DAL 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P27:48Jason Robertson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (33), Jamie Benn (32)FLA 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 72% → 86% +14DAL 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P311:09Aleksander Barkov Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (35), Brandon Montour (20)FLA 2 – 3 DAL · FLA 3% → 16% +13FLA 3% → 16%+13 pts
- P314:00Sam Bennett Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (53), Gustav Forsling (25)FLA 3 – 3 DAL · FLA 12% → 49% +37FLA 12% → 49%+37 pts
- P314:38Aleksander Barkov Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (36), Brandon Montour (21)FLA 4 – 3 DAL · FLA 49% → 88% +40FLA 49% → 88%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 51%
- Fair odds
- DAL -118
- FLA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +6 Elo | DAL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.9 | Margin | +0.64th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.0% | Shot share | 51.5%12th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 1st of 3122–10 | Road vs home | 18–1210th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.