Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:28Tyson Foerster Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (31), Sean Couturier (25)6–2
- P39:00Matthew Knies Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (18), Timothy Liljegren (16)6–1
- P34:53William Nylander Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (27), David Kampf (8)5–1
- P34:45Auston Matthews Goal (55) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (9), Ilya Lyubushkin (6)4–1
- P21:42Owen Tippett Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (24), Travis Konecny (30)3–1
- P115:39Timothy Liljegren Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (18), Ilya Samsonov (1)3–0
- P19:57Pontus Holmberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (5), Morgan Rielly (40)2–0
- P12:01Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (27), William Nylander (51)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:01Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (27), William Nylander (51)TOR 1 – 0 PHI · TOR 46% → 60% +15TOR 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P19:57Pontus Holmberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (5), Morgan Rielly (40)TOR 2 – 0 PHI · TOR 62% → 76% +14TOR 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P115:39Timothy Liljegren Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (18), Ilya Samsonov (1)TOR 3 – 0 PHI · TOR 78% → 88% +11TOR 78% → 88%+11 pts
- P21:42Owen Tippett Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (24), Travis Konecny (30)TOR 3 – 1 PHI · PHI 10% → 20% +10PHI 10% → 20%+10 pts
- P34:45Auston Matthews Goal (55) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (9), Ilya Lyubushkin (6)TOR 4 – 1 PHI · TOR 92% → 98% +6TOR 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +9 Elo | PHI 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 10th of 3116–13 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.