Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Jake DeBruskGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists1
- Danton HeinenPoints1
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:25Jake DeBrusk Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (32), Hampus Lindholm (21)2–1
- P114:37Nick Suzuki Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (21)1–1
- P14:49Danton Heinen Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (54), Pavel Zacha (28)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:49Danton Heinen Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (54), Pavel Zacha (28)BOS 1 – 0 MTL · BOS 47% → 62% +15BOS 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P114:37Nick Suzuki Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (21)BOS 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 36% → 53% +16MTL 36% → 53%+16 pts
- OT0:25Jake DeBrusk Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (32), Hampus Lindholm (21)BOS 2 – 1 MTL · BOS 49% → 90% +41BOS 49% → 90%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 45%
- Fair odds
- MTL -112
- BOS +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +38 Elo | BOS 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.0% | Shot share | 46.1%28th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 10th of 3117–14 | Road vs home | 12–2027th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.