Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Joel FarabeeGoals2
- Owen TippettAssists3
- Owen TippettPoints3
Bruins- Charlie CoyleGoals2
- Brad MarchandAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:56Joel Farabee Goal (21) Wrap-around, assists: Owen Tippett (19), Travis Konecny (31)5–6
- P317:01Danton Heinen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (20)4–6
- P315:14Morgan Frost Goal (11) Between Legs, assists: Owen Tippett (18), Cam York (18)4–5
- P314:12Nicolas Deslauriers Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: none3–5
- P34:04Jake DeBrusk Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (34), Hampus Lindholm (23)2–5
- P33:45John Beecher Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (8), Jesper Boqvist (7)2–4
- P31:08Charlie Coyle Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (55), Hampus Lindholm (22)2–3
- P215:22Charlie Coyle Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (33), Pavel Zacha (29)2–2
- P212:01Joel Farabee Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Cam York (17), Owen Tippett (17)2–1
- P115:51Morgan Geekie Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (19), Parker Wotherspoon (7)1–1
- P14:18Ryan Poehling Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (5), Egor Zamula (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:18Ryan Poehling Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (5), Egor Zamula (13)PHI 1 – 0 BOS · PHI 44% → 59% +15PHI 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P115:51Morgan Geekie Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (19), Parker Wotherspoon (7)PHI 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 39% → 55% +17BOS 39% → 55%+17 pts
- P212:01Joel Farabee Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Cam York (17), Owen Tippett (17)PHI 2 – 1 BOS · PHI 46% → 67% +21PHI 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P215:22Charlie Coyle Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (33), Pavel Zacha (29)PHI 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 32% → 54% +22BOS 32% → 54%+22 pts
- P31:08Charlie Coyle Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (55), Hampus Lindholm (22)PHI 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 53% → 77% +24BOS 53% → 77%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Fair odds
- BOS -128
- PHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | PHI: Felix Sandstrom: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +75 Elo | BOS 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 49.0%20th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 13th of 3116–15 | Road vs home | 20–1411th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.