Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists3
- Sidney CrosbyPoints4
Avalanche- Jonathan DrouinGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Jonathan DrouinPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:54Jonathan Drouin Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (60), Nathan MacKinnon (78)4–5
- P315:22Nathan MacKinnon Goal (44) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (32), Devon Toews (31)4–4
- P33:32Jonathan Drouin Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (77), Devon Toews (30)4–3
- P219:30Yakov Trenin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (6)4–2
- P216:05Sean Walker Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (21), Miles Wood (15)4–1
- P215:40Pierre-Olivier Joseph Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (39), Kris Letang (33)4–0
- P213:47Sidney Crosby Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (13)3–0
- P115:11Bryan Rust Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (38)2–0
- P17:53Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (2) Batted, assists: Reilly Smith (22), Sidney Crosby (37)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:53Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (2) Batted, assists: Reilly Smith (22), Sidney Crosby (37)PIT 1 – 0 COL · PIT 43% → 58% +16PIT 43% → 58%+16 pts
- P115:11Bryan Rust Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (38)PIT 2 – 0 COL · PIT 60% → 75% +15PIT 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P33:32Jonathan Drouin Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (77), Devon Toews (30)PIT 4 – 3 COL · COL 10% → 28% +18COL 10% → 28%+18 pts
- P315:22Nathan MacKinnon Goal (44) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (32), Devon Toews (31)PIT 4 – 4 COL · COL 10% → 52% +42COL 10% → 52%+42 pts
- OT0:54Jonathan Drouin Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (60), Nathan MacKinnon (78)PIT 4 – 5 COL · COL 52% → 93% +41COL 52% → 93%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 68%
- Fair odds
- COL -137
- PIT +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +7 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +130 Elo | COL 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 52.9%6th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.6%13th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 31 |
| 26th of 3112–21 | Road vs home | 25–61st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.