Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals2
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints4
Flames- Walker DuehrGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Walker DuehrPoints1
Scoring summary
- P219:14Mikko Rantanen Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (54)6–2
- P214:10Casey Mittelstadt Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (5), Devon Toews (28)5–2
- P27:53Valeri Nichushkin Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (55), Devon Toews (27)4–2
- P25:50Nathan MacKinnon Goal (41) Slap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (22), Mikko Rantanen (54)3–2
- P24:52Josh Manson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Walker (17), Andrew Cogliano (13)2–2
- P16:46Walker Duehr Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (32), Brayden Pachal (2)1–2
- P13:24Daniil Miromanov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (34), Martin Pospisil (10)1–1
- P12:05Mikko Rantanen Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (21), Nathan MacKinnon (72)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:24Daniil Miromanov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (34), Martin Pospisil (10)COL 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 38% → 53% +15CGY 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P16:46Walker Duehr Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (32), Brayden Pachal (2)COL 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 53% → 67% +15CGY 53% → 67%+15 pts
- P24:52Josh Manson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Walker (17), Andrew Cogliano (13)COL 2 – 2 CGY · COL 30% → 48% +18COL 30% → 48%+18 pts
- P25:50Nathan MacKinnon Goal (41) Slap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (22), Mikko Rantanen (54)COL 3 – 2 CGY · COL 48% → 67% +19COL 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P27:53Valeri Nichushkin Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (55), Devon Toews (27)COL 4 – 2 CGY · COL 67% → 83% +16COL 67% → 83%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 44%
- Fair odds
- CGY -112
- COL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.1 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −22 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +44 Elo | COL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.4% | Shot share | 50.9%14th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 16th of 3114–17 | Road vs home | 15–1519th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–0 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.