Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals2
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Timo MeierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:15Bryan Rust Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (36)2–5
- P316:53Timo Meier Goal (21) Batted, assists: Jesper Bratt (45), Jack Hughes (44)1–5
- P39:14Dawson Mercer Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (2), Ondrej Palat (19)1–4
- P38:58Alexander Holtz Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (43), Luke Hughes (27)1–3
- P214:20Timo Meier Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (26), Jesper Bratt (44)1–2
- P27:16Marcus Pettersson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (25), Rickard Rakell (19)1–1
- P15:35Dawson Mercer Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (1), Ondrej Palat (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:35Dawson Mercer Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (1), Ondrej Palat (18)PIT 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 55% → 69% +14NJ 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P27:16Marcus Pettersson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (25), Rickard Rakell (19)PIT 1 – 1 NJ · PIT 28% → 46% +18PIT 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P214:20Timo Meier Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (26), Jesper Bratt (44)PIT 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 53% → 74% +21NJ 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P38:58Alexander Holtz Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (43), Luke Hughes (27)PIT 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 82% → 96% +14NJ 82% → 96%+14 pts
- P39:14Dawson Mercer Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (2), Ondrej Palat (19)PIT 1 – 4 NJ · NJ 96% → >99% +3NJ 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 55%
- Fair odds
- NJ -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −8 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +35 Elo | NJ 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 51.5%12th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 89.4%29th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 26th of 3112–19 | Road vs home | 14–1824th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.