New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Timo MeierAssists1
- Chris TierneyPoints2
Stars- Craig SmithGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists1
- Craig SmithPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:25Alexander Holtz Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Tierney (6), Timo Meier (17)6–2
- P25:12Tomas Nosek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (14)5–2
- P23:52Timo Meier Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (43), Simon Nemec (15)4–2
- P21:31Dawson Mercer Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (30), Luke Hughes (25)3–2
- P117:14Chris Tierney Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kurtis MacDermid (1), Nick DeSimone (5)2–2
- P112:04Craig Smith Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jani Hakanpää (10), Ty Dellandrea (7)1–2
- P15:41Erik Haula Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P10:15Wyatt Johnston Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (33), Thomas Harley (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:41Erik Haula Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 1 DAL · NJ 29% → 43% +14NJ 29% → 43%+14 pts
- P112:04Craig Smith Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jani Hakanpää (10), Ty Dellandrea (7)NJ 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 56% → 71% +15DAL 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P117:14Chris Tierney Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kurtis MacDermid (1), Nick DeSimone (5)NJ 2 – 2 DAL · NJ 28% → 44% +16NJ 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P21:31Dawson Mercer Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (30), Luke Hughes (25)NJ 3 – 2 DAL · NJ 44% → 62% +18NJ 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P23:52Timo Meier Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (43), Simon Nemec (15)NJ 4 – 2 DAL · NJ 63% → 79% +16NJ 63% → 79%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 65%
- Fair odds
- DAL -133
- NJ +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −1 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +106 Elo | DAL 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 51.4%12th of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 12th of 3116–15 | Road vs home | 18–1312th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.