Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals2
- Ben ChiarotAssists1
- Lucas RaymondPoints2
Penguins- Reilly SmithGoals1
- Reilly SmithAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:34Drew O'Connor Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (20), Ryan Graves (11)3–6
- P316:37Lucas Raymond Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (21), Shayne Gostisbehere (35)3–5
- P219:39Lars Eller Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (35), Kris Letang (32)2–5
- P217:35Christian Fischer Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (17), Jeff Petry (17)2–4
- P29:34Michael Bunting Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (12), Evgeni Malkin (32)1–4
- P119:16Valtteri Puustinen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (21), Lars Eller (12)1–3
- P118:53Sidney Crosby Goal (33) Backhand, assists: none1–2
- P115:39Lucas Raymond Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (22), Ben Chiarot (12)1–1
- P110:10Reilly Smith Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (22), Erik Karlsson (38)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:10Reilly Smith Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (22), Erik Karlsson (38)DET 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 54% → 69% +15PIT 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P115:39Lucas Raymond Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (22), Ben Chiarot (12)DET 1 – 1 PIT · DET 30% → 46% +16DET 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P118:53Sidney Crosby Goal (33) Backhand, assists: noneDET 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 53% → 70% +17PIT 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P119:16Valtteri Puustinen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (21), Lars Eller (12)DET 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 70% → 83% +13PIT 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P29:34Michael Bunting Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (12), Evgeni Malkin (32)DET 1 – 4 PIT · PIT 86% → 95% +8PIT 86% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Fair odds
- PIT -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −9 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +3 Elo | PIT 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.0% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.7%12th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 13th of 3115–15 | Road vs home | 16–1720th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.