Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Andrew CoppAssists2
- Andrew CoppPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:53Lucas Raymond Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (16), Andrew Copp (20)1–4
- P313:52Daniel Sprong Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (12)1–3
- P217:40Patrick Kane Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (22), Shayne Gostisbehere (34)1–2
- P25:35Christian Fischer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (19), Moritz Seider (28)1–1
- P111:22Tage Thompson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (35), Alex Tuch (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:22Tage Thompson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (35), Alex Tuch (24)BUF 1 – 0 DET · BUF 46% → 62% +16BUF 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P25:35Christian Fischer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (19), Moritz Seider (28)BUF 1 – 1 DET · DET 35% → 53% +19DET 35% → 53%+19 pts
- P217:40Patrick Kane Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (22), Shayne Gostisbehere (34)BUF 1 – 2 DET · DET 53% → 75% +22DET 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P313:52Daniel Sprong Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (12)BUF 1 – 3 DET · DET 88% → 99% +11DET 88% → 99%+11 pts
- P318:53Lucas Raymond Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (16), Andrew Copp (20)BUF 1 – 4 DET · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- BUF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −17 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +13 Elo | DET 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 46.9%26th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 16th of 3115–16 | Road vs home | 18–1412th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.