New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Nico HischierPoints1
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- Noah HanifinAssists2
- Noah HanifinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:41William Karlsson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (27), Shea Theodore (28)1–3
- P311:06Jack Eichel Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (28)1–2
- P32:57William Carrier Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (28), Noah Hanifin (27)1–1
- P30:38Nico Hischier Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P30:38Nico Hischier Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 0 VGK · NJ 47% → 71% +24NJ 47% → 71%+24 pts
- P32:57William Carrier Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (28), Noah Hanifin (27)NJ 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 27% → 53% +26VGK 27% → 53%+26 pts
- P311:06Jack Eichel Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (28)NJ 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 52% → 84% +32VGK 52% → 84%+32 pts
- P319:41William Karlsson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (27), Shea Theodore (28)NJ 1 – 3 VGK · VGK >99% → 100% +0VGK >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 57%
- Fair odds
- VGK -124
- NJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −9 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +47 Elo | VGK 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 12th of 3117–15 | Road vs home | 20–114th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 1–0 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.