Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints3
Kraken- Brandon TanevGoals1
- Will BorgenAssists1
- Andre BurakovskyPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:01Jack Eichel Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (27)5–4
- P319:43Jonathan Marchessault Goal (37) Slap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (26), Jack Eichel (30)4–4
- P312:23William Karlsson Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (18), Shea Theodore (26)3–4
- P311:30Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (19), Yanni Gourde (17)2–4
- P35:21Brandon Tanev Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (2), Kailer Yamamoto (7)2–3
- P31:55Matty Beniers Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (21), Tomas Tatar (14)2–2
- P215:00Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (22)2–1
- P26:36Jonathan Marchessault Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (24), Jack Eichel (29)1–1
- P24:14Andre Burakovsky Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (26), Tye Kartye (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:00Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (22)VGK 2 – 1 SEA · VGK 47% → 69% +22VGK 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P31:55Matty Beniers Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (21), Tomas Tatar (14)VGK 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 27% → 53% +25SEA 27% → 53%+25 pts
- P35:21Brandon Tanev Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (2), Kailer Yamamoto (7)VGK 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 52% → 79% +26SEA 52% → 79%+26 pts
- P319:43Jonathan Marchessault Goal (37) Slap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (26), Jack Eichel (30)VGK 4 – 4 SEA · VGK <1% → 50% +50VGK <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:01Jack Eichel Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (27)VGK 5 – 4 SEA · VGK 49% → 98% +48VGK 49% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -120
- VGK +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −6 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 91.4%6th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 20th of 3113–17 | Road vs home | 13–1725th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.