Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Anthony ManthaGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists1
- Anthony ManthaPoints1
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals2
- Dryden HuntAssists2
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:02Blake Coleman Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (21), Andrew Mangiapane (24)1–4
- P314:45Matt Coronato Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dryden Hunt (3), Yegor Sharangovich (21)1–3
- P310:06Blake Coleman Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (35)1–2
- P34:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Dryden Hunt (2), Oliver Kylington (3)1–1
- P217:56Anthony Mantha Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:56Anthony Mantha Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (27)VGK 1 – 0 CGY · VGK 47% → 70% +23VGK 47% → 70%+23 pts
- P34:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Dryden Hunt (2), Oliver Kylington (3)VGK 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 26% → 52% +26CGY 26% → 52%+26 pts
- P310:06Blake Coleman Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (35)VGK 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 52% → 83% +31CGY 52% → 83%+31 pts
- P314:45Matt Coronato Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dryden Hunt (3), Yegor Sharangovich (21)VGK 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 90% → >99% +10CGY 90% → >99%+10 pts
- P317:02Blake Coleman Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (21), Andrew Mangiapane (24)VGK 1 – 4 CGY · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 51%
- Fair odds
- CGY -118
- VGK +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −21 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +5 Elo | CGY 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.8% | Shot share | 50.8%14th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 17th of 3114–17 | Road vs home | 15–1621st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–2 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.