Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Sean WalkerGoals2
- Artturi LehkonenAssists1
- Sean WalkerPoints2
Oilers- Sam CarrickGoals1
- Corey PerryAssists1
- Sam CarrickPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:59Artturi Lehkonen Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (74), Cale Makar (57)3–2
- P314:40Sean Walker Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (35), Jonathan Drouin (27)2–2
- P311:48Sam Carrick Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (7), Corey Perry (8)1–2
- P35:46Warren Foegele Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (49)1–1
- P210:39Sean Walker Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (12), Jack Johnson (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:39Sean Walker Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (12), Jack Johnson (12)COL 1 – 0 EDM · COL 47% → 67% +20COL 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P35:46Warren Foegele Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (49)COL 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 24% → 52% +28EDM 24% → 52%+28 pts
- P311:48Sam Carrick Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (7), Corey Perry (8)COL 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 52% → 85% +33EDM 52% → 85%+33 pts
- P314:40Sean Walker Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (35), Jonathan Drouin (27)COL 2 – 2 EDM · COL 10% → 49% +38COL 10% → 49%+38 pts
- OT4:59Artturi Lehkonen Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (74), Cale Makar (57)COL 3 – 2 EDM · COL 50% → 100% +50COL 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 54%
- Fair odds
- EDM -121
- COL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +2 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +25 Elo | EDM 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 54.2%4th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.7%12th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 15th of 3116–17 | Road vs home | 20–103rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.