Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Connor McMichaelPoints1
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals3
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Leon DraisaitlPoints4
Scoring summary
- P311:00Connor Brown Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Evander Kane (17), Adam Henrique (25)2–7
- P310:43Warren Foegele Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (14), Leon Draisaitl (53)2–6
- P219:08Zach Hyman Goal (46) Deflected, assists: Evan Bouchard (48), Leon Draisaitl (52)2–5
- P214:13Zach Hyman Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (42)2–4
- P111:24Zach Hyman Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (81), Brett Kulak (10)2–3
- P110:55Connor McMichael Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (31), Max Pacioretty (13)2–2
- P18:30Ivan Miroshnichenko Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P16:58Connor McDavid Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (47), Leon Draisaitl (51)0–2
- P14:36Leon Draisaitl Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (41), Connor McDavid (80)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:36Leon Draisaitl Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (41), Connor McDavid (80)WSH 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 56% → 71% +14EDM 56% → 71%+14 pts
- P18:30Ivan Miroshnichenko Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: noneWSH 1 – 2 EDM · WSH 17% → 29% +12WSH 17% → 29%+12 pts
- P110:55Connor McMichael Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (31), Max Pacioretty (13)WSH 2 – 2 EDM · WSH 29% → 44% +15WSH 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P111:24Zach Hyman Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (81), Brett Kulak (10)WSH 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 56% → 71% +15EDM 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P214:13Zach Hyman Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (42)WSH 2 – 4 EDM · EDM 75% → 89% +14EDM 75% → 89%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 63%
- Fair odds
- EDM -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +2 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +91 Elo | EDM 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.64th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.0% | Shot share | 54.1%4th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%13th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 21st of 3113–17 | Road vs home | 19–104th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.