Colorado Avalanche at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Cale MakarAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:30Valeri Nichushkin Goal (25) Deflected, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (73), Cale Makar (56)4–3
- P38:43Ross Colton Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Miles Wood (13)3–3
- P33:19Nathan MacKinnon Goal (42) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (55), Mikko Rantanen (56)2–3
- P219:57Mikko Rantanen Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (29), Casey Mittelstadt (34)1–3
- P24:23Nikita Zadorov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (19), Casey DeSmith (1)0–3
- P12:44Ilya Mikheyev Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (54), Nikita Zadorov (12)0–2
- P10:24J.T. Miller Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Ian Cole (7), Brock Boeser (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:24J.T. Miller Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Ian Cole (7), Brock Boeser (30)COL 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 58% → 72% +13VAN 58% → 72%+13 pts
- P12:44Ilya Mikheyev Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (54), Nikita Zadorov (12)COL 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 72% → 83% +11VAN 72% → 83%+11 pts
- P33:19Nathan MacKinnon Goal (42) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (55), Mikko Rantanen (56)COL 2 – 3 VAN · COL 7% → 21% +14COL 7% → 21%+14 pts
- P38:43Ross Colton Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Miles Wood (13)COL 3 – 3 VAN · COL 18% → 46% +29COL 18% → 46%+29 pts
- OT0:30Valeri Nichushkin Goal (25) Deflected, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (73), Cale Makar (56)COL 4 – 3 VAN · COL 48% → 90% +42COL 48% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 55%
- Fair odds
- VAN -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.8 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −20 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +34 Elo | VAN 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.1%8th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 16th of 3115–17 | Road vs home | 20–93rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–0 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.