Columbus Blue Jackets at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Damon SeversonGoals1
- Johnny GaudreauAssists1
- Damon SeversonPoints1
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals2
- Jonathan DrouinAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:38Valeri Nichushkin Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (36), Mikko Rantanen (57)1–6
- P37:14Mikko Rantanen Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (76), Jonathan Drouin (31)1–5
- P36:01Nathan MacKinnon Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (59)1–4
- P27:07Mikko Rantanen Goal (38) Tip-In, assists: Josh Manson (14), Samuel Girard (15)1–3
- P25:43Ross Colton Goal (15) Poke, assists: Miles Wood (14), Zach Parise (4)1–2
- P111:00Cale Makar Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (13), Jonathan Drouin (30)1–1
- P14:28Damon Severson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (41), Boone Jenner (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:28Damon Severson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (41), Boone Jenner (12)CBJ 1 – 0 COL · CBJ 42% → 57% +15CBJ 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P111:00Cale Makar Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (13), Jonathan Drouin (30)CBJ 1 – 1 COL · COL 41% → 57% +16COL 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P25:43Ross Colton Goal (15) Poke, assists: Miles Wood (14), Zach Parise (4)CBJ 1 – 2 COL · COL 56% → 74% +18COL 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P27:07Mikko Rantanen Goal (38) Tip-In, assists: Josh Manson (14), Samuel Girard (15)CBJ 1 – 3 COL · COL 74% → 87% +13COL 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P36:01Nathan MacKinnon Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (59)CBJ 1 – 4 COL · COL 95% → >99% +4COL 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 70%
- Fair odds
- COL -139
- CBJ +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +147 Elo | COL 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.7% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 17th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 31 |
| 29th of 3110–23 | Road vs home | 24–61st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.