Columbus Blue Jackets at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists2
- Zach WerenskiPoints3
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals2
- Patrick KaneAssists2
- Patrick KanePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:48Patrick Kane Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (32), Moritz Seider (29)3–4
- P319:47Lucas Raymond Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (23), Shayne Gostisbehere (36)3–3
- P34:26Kirill Marchenko Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (38), Johnny Gaudreau (40)3–2
- P24:23Moritz Seider Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (13), Michael Rasmussen (18)2–2
- P22:57Lucas Raymond Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (13), Patrick Kane (22)2–1
- P113:43Alexandre Texier Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (37), Damon Severson (15)2–0
- P15:56Zach Werenski Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:57Lucas Raymond Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (13), Patrick Kane (22)CBJ 2 – 1 DET · DET 21% → 37% +16DET 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P24:23Moritz Seider Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (13), Michael Rasmussen (18)CBJ 2 – 2 DET · DET 36% → 55% +19DET 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P34:26Kirill Marchenko Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (38), Johnny Gaudreau (40)CBJ 3 – 2 DET · CBJ 47% → 74% +27CBJ 47% → 74%+27 pts
- P319:47Lucas Raymond Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (23), Shayne Gostisbehere (36)CBJ 3 – 3 DET · DET <1% → 50% +50DET <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT0:48Patrick Kane Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (32), Moritz Seider (29)CBJ 3 – 4 DET · DET 52% → 92% +41DET 52% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 61%
- Fair odds
- DET -128
- CBJ +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −10 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +76 Elo | DET 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.5% | Shot share | 46.9%26th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 29th of 3110–22 | Road vs home | 19–1412th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–2 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.