Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals3
- Jonathan DrouinAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints3
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals1
- Justin FaulkAssists2
- Nathan WalkerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:15Mikko Rantanen Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (24)4–3
- P218:46Mikko Rantanen Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Drouin (29), Valeri Nichushkin (23)3–3
- P28:43Brayden Schenn Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (10)2–3
- P26:41Casey Mittelstadt Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (14), Jonathan Drouin (28)2–2
- P24:44Alexey Toropchenko Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Justin Faulk (24), Nathan Walker (5)1–2
- P18:48Nathan Walker Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (15), Justin Faulk (23)1–1
- P16:36Mikko Rantanen Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (75), Cale Makar (58)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:44Alexey Toropchenko Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Justin Faulk (24), Nathan Walker (5)COL 1 – 2 STL · STL 53% → 71% +18STL 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P26:41Casey Mittelstadt Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (14), Jonathan Drouin (28)COL 2 – 2 STL · COL 29% → 47% +18COL 29% → 47%+18 pts
- P28:43Brayden Schenn Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (10)COL 2 – 3 STL · STL 53% → 72% +19STL 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P218:46Mikko Rantanen Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Drouin (29), Valeri Nichushkin (23)COL 3 – 3 STL · COL 25% → 48% +23COL 25% → 48%+23 pts
- P34:15Mikko Rantanen Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (24)COL 4 – 3 STL · COL 48% → 75% +27COL 48% → 75%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Fair odds
- STL -115
- COL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +6 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +18 Elo | COL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.7% | Shot share | 46.6%27th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 13th of 3117–17 | Road vs home | 20–115th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–1 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.