Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jordan Kyrou Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Matt Boldy Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Brayden Schenn Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P316:01Kirill Kaprizov Goal (35) Deflected, assists: Mats Zuccarello (44), Zach Bogosian (9)2–2
- P31:10Marco Rossi Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (41)1–2
- P30:27Brayden Schenn Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (29), Nick Leddy (21)0–2
- P25:49Jordan Kyrou Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (9), Robert Thomas (50)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:49Jordan Kyrou Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (9), Robert Thomas (50)MIN 0 – 1 STL · STL 54% → 72% +18STL 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P30:27Brayden Schenn Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (29), Nick Leddy (21)MIN 0 – 2 STL · STL 76% → 91% +15STL 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P31:10Marco Rossi Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (41)MIN 1 – 2 STL · MIN 8% → 23% +15MIN 8% → 23%+15 pts
- P316:01Kirill Kaprizov Goal (35) Deflected, assists: Mats Zuccarello (44), Zach Bogosian (9)MIN 2 – 2 STL · MIN 7% → 49% +41MIN 7% → 49%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Fair odds
- STL -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +37 Elo | STL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.121st of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.8% | Shot share | 46.4%27th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 22nd of 3113–17 | Road vs home | 18–118th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.