Los Angeles Kings at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Alex TurcotteAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints1
Blues- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Brandon SaadPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:08Adrian Kempe Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (28), Alex Turcotte (3)1–3
- P310:26Brandon Saad Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Colton Parayko (14), Kevin Hayes (14)0–3
- P21:57Jake Neighbours Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Justin Faulk (20), Zack Bolduc (1)0–2
- P117:30Alexey Toropchenko Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (20), Nathan Walker (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:30Alexey Toropchenko Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (20), Nathan Walker (4)LA 0 – 1 STL · STL 54% → 70% +16STL 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P21:57Jake Neighbours Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Justin Faulk (20), Zack Bolduc (1)LA 0 – 2 STL · STL 71% → 84% +13STL 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P310:26Brandon Saad Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Colton Parayko (14), Kevin Hayes (14)LA 0 – 3 STL · STL 97% → >99% +3STL 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P313:08Adrian Kempe Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (28), Alex Turcotte (3)LA 1 – 3 STL · LA <1% → 1% +1LA <1% → 1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Fair odds
- STL -121
- LA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +27 Elo | STL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.6% | Shot share | 46.4%27th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 6th of 3117–13 | Road vs home | 17–118th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.