Anaheim Ducks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals2
- Alex KillornAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints2
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals2
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists3
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:52Troy Terry Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (16), Leo Carlsson (15)2–4
- P39:33Robert Thomas Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (28), Justin Faulk (22)1–4
- P36:12Jake Neighbours Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Schenn (19), Pavel Buchnevich (27)1–3
- P31:53Robert Thomas Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (26), Justin Faulk (21)1–2
- P214:56Kevin Hayes Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (31), Zack Bolduc (2)1–1
- P113:41Troy Terry Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (23), Jackson LaCombe (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:41Troy Terry Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (23), Jackson LaCombe (12)ANA 1 – 0 STL · ANA 47% → 64% +16ANA 47% → 64%+16 pts
- P214:56Kevin Hayes Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (31), Zack Bolduc (2)ANA 1 – 1 STL · STL 30% → 52% +22STL 30% → 52%+22 pts
- P31:53Robert Thomas Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (26), Justin Faulk (21)ANA 1 – 2 STL · STL 52% → 76% +24STL 52% → 76%+24 pts
- P36:12Jake Neighbours Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Schenn (19), Pavel Buchnevich (27)ANA 1 – 3 STL · STL 79% → 94% +15STL 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P39:33Robert Thomas Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (28), Justin Faulk (22)ANA 1 – 4 STL · STL 96% → >99% +3STL 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 61%
- Fair odds
- STL -112
- ANA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −4 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +80 Elo | STL 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 30th of 3145.0% | Shot share | 46.6%27th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 24th of 3113–19 | Road vs home | 19–117th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–1 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.