Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Michael BuntingGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Michael BuntingPoints2
Stars- Jamie BennGoals2
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Jamie BennPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:03Rickard Rakell Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (34), Michael Bunting (26)2–4
- P34:37Sam Steel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Craig Smith (7)1–4
- P27:09Jamie Benn Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (5)1–3
- P25:52Jamie Benn Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (39), Jason Robertson (48)1–2
- P17:16Joe Pavelski Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (25), Jason Robertson (47)1–1
- P12:45Michael Bunting Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (33), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:45Michael Bunting Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (33), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (6)PIT 1 – 0 DAL · PIT 43% → 58% +15PIT 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P17:16Joe Pavelski Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (25), Jason Robertson (47)PIT 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 41% → 56% +15DAL 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P25:52Jamie Benn Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (39), Jason Robertson (48)PIT 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 55% → 73% +18DAL 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P27:09Jamie Benn Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (5)PIT 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 73% → 87% +14DAL 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P34:37Sam Steel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Craig Smith (7)PIT 1 – 4 DAL · DAL 94% → 99% +5DAL 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 63%
- Fair odds
- DAL -131
- PIT +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −5 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +94 Elo | DAL 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 17th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.69th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 51.6%11th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 26th of 3112–20 | Road vs home | 19–1413th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.