Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Stars- Thomas HarleyGoals1
- Thomas HarleyAssists1
- Thomas HarleyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P31:11Kevin Fiala Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (16)1–4
- P22:30Jamie Benn Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (34), Jason Robertson (45)0–4
- P115:15Wyatt Johnston Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (13), Logan Stankoven (4)0–3
- P18:49Craig Smith Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (38), Thomas Harley (23)0–2
- P12:28Thomas Harley Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:28Thomas Harley Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (9)LA 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 60% → 73% +13DAL 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P18:49Craig Smith Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (38), Thomas Harley (23)LA 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 74% → 85% +11DAL 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P115:15Wyatt Johnston Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (13), Logan Stankoven (4)LA 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 86% → 93% +8DAL 86% → 93%+8 pts
- P22:30Jamie Benn Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (34), Jason Robertson (45)LA 0 – 4 DAL · DAL 94% → 98% +4DAL 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P31:11Kevin Fiala Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (16)LA 1 – 4 DAL · LA <1% → 2% +1LA <1% → 2%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 63%
- Fair odds
- DAL -150
- LA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 3.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +93 Elo | DAL 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.69th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.7% | Shot share | 51.6%12th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%23rd of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 9th of 3118–14 | Road vs home | 18–1413th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 0–2 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.