Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals2
- Adrian KempeAssists2
- Anze KopitarPoints2
BlackhawksScoring summary
- P22:31Jordan Spence Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (11), Andreas Englund (9)5–0
- P114:19Anze Kopitar Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (30), Adrian Kempe (34)4–0
- P18:03Anze Kopitar Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (29), Adrian Kempe (33)3–0
- P15:33Alex Laferriere Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (18), Pierre-Luc Dubois (15)2–0
- P13:10Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (18), Phillip Danault (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:10Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (18), Phillip Danault (24)LA 1 – 0 CHI · LA 48% → 63% +15LA 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P15:33Alex Laferriere Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (18), Pierre-Luc Dubois (15)LA 2 – 0 CHI · LA 64% → 77% +13LA 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P18:03Anze Kopitar Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (29), Adrian Kempe (33)LA 3 – 0 CHI · LA 77% → 87% +10LA 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P114:19Anze Kopitar Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (30), Adrian Kempe (34)LA 4 – 0 CHI · LA 89% → 95% +6LA 89% → 95%+6 pts
- P22:31Jordan Spence Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (11), Andreas Englund (9)LA 5 – 0 CHI · LA 97% → 99% +2LA 97% → 99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 38%
- Fair odds
- CHI -106
- LA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −21 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +86 Elo | LA 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −1.430th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.7% | Shot share | 45.1%29th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%24th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 11th of 3117–14 | Road vs home | 12–2127th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.