Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Scott LaughtonGoals1
- Scott LaughtonAssists1
- Scott LaughtonPoints2
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists3
- Vincent TrocheckPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:36Adam Fox Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (47), Artemi Panarin (59)5–6
- P316:29Tyson Foerster Goal (19) Backhand, assists: none5–5
- P313:59Alexis Lafrenière Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (46), Artemi Panarin (58)4–5
- P311:45Owen Tippett Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Morgan Frost (28)4–4
- P39:34Vincent Trocheck Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (39)3–4
- P36:45Travis Konecny Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P32:57Alexis Lafrenière Goal (21) Backhand, assists: none2–3
- P31:23Jonny Brodzinski Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (5)2–2
- P215:28Mika Zibanejad Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (57), Adam Fox (48)2–1
- P211:39Ryan Poehling Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Scott Laughton (24), Egor Zamula (15)2–0
- P22:58Scott Laughton Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (32), Travis Sanheim (32)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P39:34Vincent Trocheck Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (39)PHI 3 – 4 NYR · NYR 53% → 83% +30NYR 53% → 83%+30 pts
- P311:45Owen Tippett Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Morgan Frost (28)PHI 4 – 4 NYR · PHI 15% → 47% +33PHI 15% → 47%+33 pts
- P313:59Alexis Lafrenière Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (46), Artemi Panarin (58)PHI 4 – 5 NYR · NYR 52% → 89% +36NYR 52% → 89%+36 pts
- P316:29Tyson Foerster Goal (19) Backhand, assists: nonePHI 5 – 5 NYR · PHI 6% → 48% +42PHI 6% → 48%+42 pts
- OT0:36Adam Fox Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (47), Artemi Panarin (59)PHI 5 – 6 NYR · NYR 52% → 92% +40NYR 52% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 64%
- Fair odds
- NYR -132
- PHI +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +100 Elo | NYR 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3154.6% | Shot share | 50.4%17th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 91.3%6th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 15th of 3116–17 | Road vs home | 24–92nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–2 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.