Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists1
- Scott LaughtonPoints1
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Brent BurnsAssists1
- Jordan MartinookPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:28Seth Jarvis Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (27)2–3
- P310:16Travis Konecny Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (26), Owen Tippett (21)2–2
- P210:43Jalen Chatfield Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (49), Dmitry Orlov (20)1–2
- P24:21Scott Laughton Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (28), Bobby Brink (12)1–1
- P23:56Jordan Martinook Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (27), Brett Pesce (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:56Jordan Martinook Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (27), Brett Pesce (10)PHI 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 56% → 73% +17CAR 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P24:21Scott Laughton Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (28), Bobby Brink (12)PHI 1 – 1 CAR · PHI 27% → 44% +17PHI 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P210:43Jalen Chatfield Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (49), Dmitry Orlov (20)PHI 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 55% → 74% +19CAR 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P310:16Travis Konecny Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (26), Owen Tippett (21)PHI 2 – 2 CAR · PHI 16% → 47% +31PHI 16% → 47%+31 pts
- OT1:28Seth Jarvis Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (27)PHI 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 52% → 94% +42CAR 52% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 66%
- Fair odds
- CAR -134
- PHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +10 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +112 Elo | CAR 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.76th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.5% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%18th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 14th of 3116–16 | Road vs home | 21–139th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.