Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals2
- Jake GuentzelAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints3
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:22Jake Guentzel Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (48)4–1
- P34:30Kyle Palmieri Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Brock Nelson (30), Bo Horvat (33)3–1
- P119:58Martin Necas Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (14), Brady Skjei (29)3–0
- P114:53Seth Jarvis Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (36), Jaccob Slavin (24)2–0
- P112:48Seth Jarvis Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (28), Jake Guentzel (35)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:48Seth Jarvis Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (28), Jake Guentzel (35)CAR 1 – 0 NYI · CAR 48% → 64% +16CAR 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P114:53Seth Jarvis Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (36), Jaccob Slavin (24)CAR 2 – 0 NYI · CAR 64% → 78% +14CAR 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P119:58Martin Necas Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (14), Brady Skjei (29)CAR 3 – 0 NYI · CAR 80% → 90% +10CAR 80% → 90%+10 pts
- P34:30Kyle Palmieri Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Brock Nelson (30), Bo Horvat (33)CAR 3 – 1 NYI · NYI 2% → 8% +6NYI 2% → 8%+6 pts
- P316:22Jake Guentzel Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (48)CAR 4 – 1 NYI · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 42%
- Fair odds
- NYI -111
- CAR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | 0 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +53 Elo | CAR 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.426th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.1% | Shot share | 47.2%24th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%12th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 4th of 3119–13 | Road vs home | 14–1724th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–2 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.