Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- John TavaresAssists2
- John TavaresPoints3
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Owen TippettAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:50John Tavares Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (19), Auston Matthews (29)3–4
- P313:00Scott Laughton Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (20)2–4
- P310:16Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (43), John Tavares (29)2–3
- P31:11William Nylander Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (28), John Tavares (28)1–3
- P216:26Morgan Frost Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ronnie Attard (1)0–3
- P20:56Travis Sanheim Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (6)0–2
- P10:19Owen Tippett Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (19), Morgan Frost (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:19Owen Tippett Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (19), Morgan Frost (25)TOR 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 54% → 68% +14PHI 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P20:56Travis Sanheim Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (6)TOR 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 70% → 84% +13PHI 70% → 84%+13 pts
- P216:26Morgan Frost Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ronnie Attard (1)TOR 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 89% → 96% +7PHI 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P310:16Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (43), John Tavares (29)TOR 2 – 3 PHI · TOR 3% → 17% +14TOR 3% → 17%+14 pts
- P313:00Scott Laughton Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (20)TOR 2 – 4 PHI · PHI 86% → 99% +12PHI 86% → 99%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Fair odds
- PHI -117
- TOR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −5 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +4 Elo | TOR 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.4% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 8th of 3117–13 | Road vs home | 16–1721st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–0 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.