Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Brandon MontourAssists3
- Sam ReinhartPoints3
Flyers- Bobby BrinkGoals1
- Ryan PoehlingAssists1
- Bobby BrinkPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:48Sam Reinhart Goal (50) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (9)4–1
- P312:54Bobby Brink Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (15), Egor Zamula (14)3–1
- P34:43Carter Verhaeghe Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (18), Brandon Montour (25)3–0
- P20:55Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (33), Brandon Montour (24)2–0
- P110:34Sam Reinhart Goal (49) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (20), Brandon Montour (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:34Sam Reinhart Goal (49) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (20), Brandon Montour (23)FLA 1 – 0 PHI · FLA 48% → 63% +16FLA 48% → 63%+16 pts
- P20:55Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (33), Brandon Montour (24)FLA 2 – 0 PHI · FLA 65% → 80% +15FLA 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P34:43Carter Verhaeghe Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (18), Brandon Montour (25)FLA 3 – 0 PHI · FLA 92% → 98% +6FLA 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P312:54Bobby Brink Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (15), Egor Zamula (14)FLA 3 – 1 PHI · PHI <1% → 2% +2PHI <1% → 2%+2 pts
- P318:48Sam Reinhart Goal (50) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (9)FLA 4 – 1 PHI · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 43%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- FLA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PHI and FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −16 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · PHI: Felix Sandstrom: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +46 Elo | FLA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3154.8% | Shot share | 54.5%3rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 1st of 3123–12 | Road vs home | 18–1718th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.