Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals2
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints3
PanthersScoring summary
- P314:19Filip Forsberg Goal (38) Backhand, assists: Gustav Nyquist (43), Ryan O'Reilly (34)3–0
- P27:32Filip Forsberg Goal (37) Tip-In, assists: Tyson Barrie (13), Roman Josi (53)2–0
- P117:47Gustav Nyquist Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (39), Ryan O'Reilly (33)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:47Gustav Nyquist Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (39), Ryan O'Reilly (33)NSH 1 – 0 FLA · NSH 45% → 62% +17NSH 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P27:32Filip Forsberg Goal (37) Tip-In, assists: Tyson Barrie (13), Roman Josi (53)NSH 2 – 0 FLA · NSH 65% → 81% +16NSH 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P314:19Filip Forsberg Goal (38) Backhand, assists: Gustav Nyquist (43), Ryan O'Reilly (34)NSH 3 – 0 FLA · NSH 99% → >99% +1NSH 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 59%
- Fair odds
- FLA -127
- NSH +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +66 Elo | FLA 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 55.1%2nd of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3121–12 | Road vs home | 20–128th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 0–1 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.